DSE
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Jan 8, 2005, 9:40 AM
Post #17 of 43
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First, there is no "supposedly." You sound very informed, but somehow missed the fact that there are one of two FCC-mandated options available to US broadcasters:
1. Begin DTV on Jan 1, 2007
unless-
2. Less than 85% of the US market is capable of receiving DTV.
There are currently no plans to delay the Jan 1 date, we won't know the real answer until Jan 2006. Digital reception capability currently sits at slightly over 50%, according to the NAB. I'm sure we'll see revised numbers up or down in April of this year at the NAB show.
All ATSC signatories have agreed that they'll be broadcasting HD when they make the switch. Currently there are nearly 1500 stations in nearly 250 markets already simucasting DTV, and of those near 1500, 972 have signed on to HDTV. Many already are broadcasting bars, weather, infonet, or static graphic right now.
Industry trends are accelerating by a factor 3. In other words, the American public used to buy a TV on an 8 year cycle. Now we're allegedly buying televisions or related home entertainment equipment every 28 months. Depends on which industry and government report you read, they vary in numbers.
We are far more a home-entertainment based society, which is a big part of the acceleration. DVD sales, players, internet use, video games, home theater systems, and high costs of external entertainment such as concerts and sporting events are keeping the buying public at home more. As the home becomes more digital, people are also upgrading not only more rapidly, but more intelligently. It doesn't take a genius to figure that one out, look at what's happened in recent years with Best Buy, Circuit City, and similar electronic's based store offerings. Peddie, Taranton, and every other industry indicator and research firm not only supports this trend with research data, but expects it to accelerate even further.
DV is also expected to die a slow death, but was the death of SVHS all that slow? And the cost of the new formats are equivalent to the cost of a semi-professional and professional DV camera.
Regarding Chicago, there weren't HD TV's "all over the place", as there were dang few HDTV's available in 1990, and what ones were there, were well over 50K, and it wasn't called HDTV, it was called NHK TV, and wasn't offered to the general public, only Hollywood and trade. Barco made a fortune on just the 54" versions of these, as rentals for trade events and large format display walls. Of course those few TVs weren't demanded by any but the Bill Gates of the world. The HDTV standard wasn't even settled until Dec 1990,and no broadcast anything existed until late 1995, it was all cobbled stuff that wasn't compatible with anything, let alone itself. So using "Chicago 1990" as any kind of a benchmark is like using the Hindenberg as a benchmark of spaceflight.
Now you can buy HDTVs in Walmart. That in and of itself, is a strong indicator of the market trend. If folks can buy it at Walmart, they think they need it, regardless of quality. Walmart has significantly stepped up it's purchasing of HDTV, one of their buyers was on a panel two days ago at CES.
BTW, even beginning to consider that CES Chicago is remotely akin to CES 2004 or 2005 is seriously mistaken. This is ComDex now, CES has matured and grown beyond comprehension. It's NOTHING like Chicago, or even Vegas 4 years ago.
You, me, and all the rest of the people speculating on this could be right or wrong. Industry research and market direction has certainly been wrong before. But one thing that is for absolute certain; we're consuming more gadgets, gizmos, electronics, entertainment, and software exponentially faster than ever before. The only thing anyone knows for sure is that no one knows. All that can be done is look at the trends, look at what's coming, and draw the best line from one resource to the other, and gamble. Obviously, Sony, JVC, Samsun, Hitachi, Pioneer, Canon, Toshiba, Fuji, Panasonic, Apple, Microsoft, and a host of others are gambling on the same futuristic come that I've ascribed to as well.
Maybe we're just all suckers.
Only time will tell.
Maybe this will call up some memories. They said in 1965 that people would never want to stay home and watch this many television shows, and in 1962, there was even a small movement to limit the number of hours television could broadcast on 3 stations.
Douglas Spotted Eagle
Author, producer, composer
www.vasst.com
"I enjoy music, long walks at sunset on the beach, and poking dead things with a sharp stick."
(This post was edited by DSE on Jan 8, 2005, 9:53 AM)
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